Here is a look at who is available, what makes them so attractive and/or unattractive and a prediction on where they will end up.
Ben Sheets:
13-9, 3.09 ERA, 198.1 INN, 181 H, 17 HR, 47 BB, 158 K, 139 ERA+-Sheets is undoubtedly the most talented pitcher without a contract. He combines an explosive repertoire of pitches with all star results. However, injury concerns play a large role in Sheets' inability to find a contract to his liking. He made it through most of last season injury free but suffered a tear in his elbow during September that caused him to miss the postseason. Along with the injury problems is the fact that any team that signs Sheets will have to forfeit a 1st round draft pick due to his Type A status.
A team in desperate need of a front of the rotation starter to help complete a possible contender should be intrigued by Sheets. Anyone looking for a back of the rotation innings eater will likely look elsewhere.
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers - 2 years, 18 million with 3rd year option at 13 million
Oliver Perez:
10-7, 4.22 ERA, 194 INN, 167 H, 105 BB, 180 K, 100 ERA+
-Not many pitchers have gone through the ups and downs that Oliver Perez has the past few years. For the past two seasons things have been up for Oliver. Because of this, he is asking for the moon and expecting nothing less. Concerns about control and stamina mixed with being a Type A free agent have lead to little interest in the 27 year old lefty. Perez is a risky signing for any club, I guess except the Yankees, because it is possible that he lets his control problems get the best of him and reverts back to his 2005-2006 form. Although there is as good a chance he throws enough strikes to be a solid #2-3 starter.
I can't see Perez escaping from New York after the Mets lost out on Derek Lowe. The Mets need one more starter to complete their rotation and they already have some good, reliable arms in Santana, Pelfrey and Maine. The risky Perez shouldn't scare them too much. A signing could take longer to develop now that Derek Lowe signed for big bucks. Perez is going to want his demands met, too. Not sure if that will happen.
Prediction: New York Mets - 3 years, 31.5 million with 4th year option at 12.5 million
Jon Garland:
14-8, 4.90 ERA, 192 INN, 237 H, 59 BB, 90 K, 91 ERA+
-One of the more unexciting pitchers in the game, Garland gets hitters out by getting ahead early and inducing weak contact. Because of this, he has been one of the most durable starters in the game. Last year, though, was the first time since 2003 that Garland didn't top 200 innings. However, it wasn't because of injury. Garland made 32 starts. It was because he had a rough season posting the worst ERA and ERA+ and lowest K total(in a full season) of his big league career. Perhaps a switch to the National League could help Garland out a lot.
There hasn't been a whole lot of talk about Garland. I'm going to guess he still thinks he can get 3 years at about 8-10 per. In the end, I think he caves and goes the Kyle Lohse route.
Prediction: Washington Nationals - 1 year, 6.5 million with about 2-3 million in incentives
Randy Wolf:
12-12, 4.30 ERA, 190.1 INN, 191 H, 71 BB, 162 K, 93 ERA+
-Wolf is a poor man's Ben Sheets. He is a good middle to back of the rotation pitcher that can toss a good amount of quality starts. Like Sheets, though, injuries are a problem. In 2008, Wolf made 30+ starts for the first time since 2003. Tommy John surgery and shoulder surgery have kept him on the DL for much of 2004 to 2007. His strong comeback in 2008 dismisses the thought that the surgeries have drained Wolf of his ability to be an impact starter in the majors. Also, he is just a Type B free agent so his new team will not have to forfeit a draft pick.
Still, a team looking for a sure bet to get 190+ innings may feel more comfortable with Garland or Pettitte.
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers - 2 years, 14 million
Andy Pettitte:
14-14, 4.54 ERA, 204 INN, 233 H, 19 HR, 55 BB, 158 K, 98 ERA+
-Pettitte might have been one of the more underrated pitchers in free agency this winter. At least among the fans. He isn't the dominating stud he was in Houston in 2005(not really sure where that season came from) but he is almost a lock to pitch 200 innings with solid results. On the road last season, Pettitte posted a 3.78 ERA compared to a 5.28 ERA in Yankee Stadium. So perhaps getting out of the Bronx will be a good move for the 37 year old lefty. (Of course where I have him going might not be any better.)
Pettitte already turned down the Yankees 10 mil offer but that doesn't mean he will get more elsewhere. Not many teams have 10+ million lying around. I believe Pettitte was just pulling a Joe Torre and felt a massive paycut was a slap in the face. Pettitte has a worse case than Torre does, though. He is a good #3-4 starter, but he is seeking the money of a #1-2 starter. He won't find it.
Prediction: Texas Rangers - 2 years, 18.5 million
Braden Looper:
12-14, 4.16 ERA, 199 INN, 216 H, 25 HR, 45 BB, 108 K, 102 ERA+
-It wasn't long ago that Looper was closing out ballgames at Shea Stadium. It also wasn't long ago that he was getting booed off the field at Shea Stadium. Thanks to Dave Duncan, Looper has found a nice home in the starting rotation the past two seasons. Looper has surprisingly become a quality back of the rotation arm. Although the improvement he showed from his first year of starting to the second could carry over to year three and turn him into more of an impact starter. I doubt any GM is banking on that and I'm sure several GMs are worried about the durability of a 34 year old pitcher that is just two years removed from pitching in relief for 9 straight years.
For now, innings eating and strike throwing as well as providing a good amount of quality starts help boost Looper's attractiveness. Long term contracts probably aren't in his future but I could see several suitors giving him a call if he decides to accept a shorter deal.
Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals - 1 year, 6 million with 2nd year option at 8 million
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